Mortgage rates rose again last week, the seventh increase in a row. Freddie Mac's survey dated October 8 put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, up from 7.28% a week earlier and the highest reading since November 2023. The 15-year fixed climbed to 6.73%, also its highest since November 2023.
We covered the new survey alongside the Fed's meeting minutes in Friday's post. This recap puts the full seven-week run in context, prices it on a California-sized loan, and looks at the one piece of better news from last week: Treasury yields eased after the survey was taken.
| Rate | Latest | Prior Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 7.40% | 7.28% | ▲ +0.12 |
| 15-year fixed | 6.73% | 6.60% | ▲ +0.13 |
| 30-year minus 15-year | 0.67 | 0.68 | ▼ −0.01 |
| Fed funds rate (effective, monthly average) | 3.75% (Sept.) | 3.63% (Aug.) | ▲ +0.12 |
| Fed funds target range (since Sept. 16) | 3.75%–4.00% | 3.75%–4.00% | — unchanged |
| Prime rate | 7.00% | 7.00% | — unchanged |
Quick read: The 30-year has risen from 6.65% on August 20 to 7.40%, a 0.75-point climb in seven weeks. The weekly step was smaller than the prior week's 0.25-point jump. The Fed and the prime rate did not move. The effective funds rate in the table is a monthly average and has not been updated for October yet.
Here is how the 30-year average has moved since late August, according to Freddie Mac:
| Survey date | 30-year fixed | 15-year fixed | 30-year weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 20 | 6.65% | 5.95% | — |
| August 27 | 6.66% | 5.98% | ▲ +0.01 |
| September 3 | 6.71% | 6.04% | ▲ +0.05 |
| September 10 | 6.76% | 6.09% | ▲ +0.05 |
| September 17 | 6.95% | 6.26% | ▲ +0.19 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | 6.42% | ▲ +0.08 |
| October 1 | 7.28% | 6.60% | ▲ +0.25 |
| October 8 | 7.40% | 6.73% | ▲ +0.12 |
Seven straight weekly increases is uncommon. The last time it happened, the run ended on October 26, 2023, at the 30-year's recent peak of 7.79%. Today's average sits about 0.39 points below that peak. Compared with a year ago, when Freddie Mac's October 9, 2025 survey showed 6.30%, the 30-year is up about 1.1 points.
Thirty-year mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than they track the Fed. According to the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve, the 10-year closed at 5.31% on Monday, October 5, its highest close since May 2002. It then slipped to 5.27% on October 6, 5.28% on October 7, 5.22% on October 8, and 5.24% on Friday, October 9.
That is a 0.07-point drop from the Monday high. It is small, and it came in the same week the Fed's minutes showed most officials expecting another hike by year end. Still, Friday's close was below the prior Friday's 5.28%, the 10-year's first Friday-to-Friday decline since late August.
One week is not a trend: A few days of lower Treasury yields do not guarantee a lower survey on October 15. Lenders price loans every day, and weekly averages can move in either direction. Nothing here predicts the rate you will be offered.
On a $600,000 30-year loan, principal and interest at 7.40% comes to about $4,154 a month. At last week's 7.28% it was about $4,105, so the week added roughly $49 a month. Against August 20's 6.65%, when the same loan ran about $3,852, the seven-week rise adds around $302 a month, or about $3,600 a year. Against a year ago at 6.30%, about $3,714 a month, the difference is roughly $440 a month.
At 6.73%, a $600,000 15-year loan runs about $5,303 a month, up from roughly $5,260 at 6.60% and about $5,047 at August 20's 5.95%. (Estimates assume principal and interest only on a $600,000 loan for the full stated term, with no property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, or mortgage insurance. Your rate and payment will differ.)
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Check My Rate →Every increase makes your first mortgage more valuable to keep. A $600,000 balance at 4% costs about $2,864 a month in principal and interest, roughly $1,290 below the same loan at 7.40%. A cash-out refinance would reprice the whole balance at today's rates. If you need cash for a remodel, tuition, or paying down higher-rate debt, a HELOC or home equity loan borrows against your equity as a second lien and leaves the first mortgage alone. Start with our guide to tapping equity without refinancing or a free equity estimate.
Your rate did not change last week. Most variable HELOCs are priced off prime, which FRED shows at 7.00%, unchanged since the day after the September hike. Prime moves with the Fed's target range, so the date to watch is the October 27–28 meeting. Friday's minutes suggest another hike is on the table by year end. If you carry a large balance and want a firm payment, ask your lender whether part of the line can be converted to a fixed rate, or compare a fixed-rate home equity loan using this comparison.
Refinancing is harder to justify right now. A common rule of thumb is that a refinance starts to make sense when you can lower your rate by roughly 0.75% to 1% after costs. Against a 7.40% survey average, that generally points to a current rate above 8%. Work out your break-even now, using your balance, closing costs, and how long you plan to stay, so you are ready if yields keep easing. If you also want cash out, compare a HELOC with a cash-out refinance in our California breakdown first.
After seven straight increases, one softer week of bond trading can make waiting look smart. It may or may not be. The part you control is how many lenders compete for your loan. The gap between offers on the same file is often larger than a week of survey movement, which is why shopping through a broker rather than a single bank can matter more than the day you lock.
Survey averages are a starting point, not your rate. If you work for a major California organization such as Kaiser Permanente or LAUSD, you may qualify for discounted mortgage and home equity pricing through MyRateAdvisor's lender relationships. Checking eligibility is free and does not require a credit pull.
Freddie Mac's next survey publishes Thursday, October 15. It will be the first to reflect last week's easing in Treasury yields, so it will show whether the seven-week run continues. The September inflation report comes out later this month, ahead of the Fed's October 27–28 meeting, and it is the data most likely to decide whether the Fed hikes again. We will cover the new survey in next Monday's recap.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED, as of October 8, 2026. Prior-week figures, the weekly 30-year and 15-year averages from August 20 through October 8, 2026, the October 9, 2025 reading of 6.30%, the October 26, 2023 peak of 7.79%, and the "highest since" and consecutive-increase comparisons are calculated from the same FRED series (MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US). Effective federal funds rate (August and September monthly averages), federal funds target range upper limit, and bank prime loan rate: FRED. 10-year Treasury yields for October 5 through 9, 2026: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Federal funds target range: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026. Survey rates are national averages for conventional, conforming loans for borrowers with excellent credit, and may differ from the rate you are offered. Payment figures are illustrative estimates based on the assumptions stated in the article. This article is general information, not financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor about your specific situation. MyRateAdvisor NMLS #1598577.