Two releases this week tell the same story. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve published the minutes of its September 15–16 meeting, the one where it raised rates for the first time since 2023. The headline line: most participants assessed that another increase in the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.
On Thursday, Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%, up from 7.28% a week earlier. That is the seventh straight weekly increase and the highest reading since November 16, 2023, according to FRED data. A year ago the same average was 6.30%.
Quick read: The Fed's own notes show most officials expect one more hike before the end of 2026. Mortgage rates have climbed for seven weeks straight, to 7.40%. Fixed-rate mortgages you already have do not change. A variable-rate HELOC would likely rise again if the Fed follows through. The next decision is October 27–28.
When the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its projections already showed most officials expecting another increase, as we covered in our post on the September decision. The minutes, released three weeks after each meeting, explain the reasoning behind those projections. A few passages stand out for borrowers.
The minutes also include the usual caveat. Officials said they approach each meeting with an open mind and that decisions depend on incoming data. An expected hike is not a scheduled one.
A note on forecasts: The minutes describe what officials thought in mid-September, based on the data they had then. Nothing here is a prediction by MyRateAdvisor of where the Fed or your rate will go.
| Rate | Latest | Prior week | Before the streak | A year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 7.40% | 7.28% | 6.65% (Aug 20) | 6.30% |
| 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 6.73% | 6.60% | — | — |
| Fed funds target range | 3.75% – 4.00% | Unchanged | 3.50% – 3.75% | — |
| Prime rate | 7.00% | Unchanged | 6.75% | — |
The Fed hasn't moved since September, yet mortgage rates kept climbing. That's because 30-year rates follow longer-term bond yields, mainly the 10-year Treasury, and those yields price in where investors expect the Fed and inflation to go. The minutes note that Treasury yields rose about 35 basis points across the 2- to 10-year range between the July and September meetings alone.
The climb continued after that. According to Treasury Department data, the 10-year closed at 5.31% on Monday, October 5, its highest close since May 2002. It eased to 5.22% by Thursday's close. One soft day is not a turn, but it's worth watching, because next week's survey will reflect it.
For scale: on a $600,000 30-year loan, principal and interest at 7.40% comes to about $4,154 a month. At 6.65%, where the average stood in late August before this streak began, the same loan would have run about $3,852, roughly $302 less. That assumes principal and interest only, with no taxes, insurance, HOA dues, or mortgage insurance, and it's an illustration, not a quote.
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Check My Rate →Nothing changes. Your rate and payment are locked. If that rate starts with a 3, 4, or 5, it's worth more than ever with new loans averaging over 7%. If you need cash for a remodel or to pay off higher-rate debt, a second lien such as a HELOC or home equity loan leaves your first mortgage alone. Our guide to accessing home equity without refinancing walks through the options.
This is where another hike would land. Most HELOCs are priced off the prime rate, which went from 6.75% to 7.00% after the September hike. If the Fed raises rates another quarter point and prime follows, interest on a drawn balance would rise by roughly $21 a month per $100,000. Together with September's increase, that would be about $42 a month per $100,000 more than this summer.
That's not a reason to panic, but it is a reason to plan. Many lenders let you convert some or all of a HELOC balance to a fixed rate, and a fixed-rate home equity loan puts a firm number on your cost from the start. Our home equity loan vs. HELOC comparison lays out the tradeoff. Check your agreement for conversion fees and minimums first.
A common rule of thumb is that a refinance starts to make sense when you can lower your rate by about 0.75% to 1% after costs. With the average at 7.40%, that mostly helps borrowers already paying around 8% or more. If you're below that and want cash out, compare a HELOC against a cash-out refinance before you assume a refi is the only route.
Seven weeks of increases can make waiting feel like the safe move, but the Fed's own notes suggest no quick relief is planned. What you control is how many lenders compete for your loan. The spread between offers on the same file can be wider than a week of market movement, which is the case for shopping through a broker rather than a single bank.
The September inflation report, due later this month, is the biggest data point before the Fed meets again. A hot reading would support the hike most officials already expect. A soft one would give the officials who want to wait more room. The committee's next decision comes October 27–28, with a final 2026 meeting December 8–9. We'll cover the weekly rate moves in Monday's recap.
Meeting discussion and quoted language: Federal Reserve, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15–16, 2026, released October 7, 2026. Meeting dates: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar. Federal funds target range and prime rate: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). 10-year Treasury closes: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, through October 8, 2026. Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED, as of October 8, 2026. Survey rates are national averages for borrowers with excellent credit and may differ from the rate you are offered. Payment figures are illustrative estimates calculated with a standard amortization formula on the assumptions stated in the article; they are not quotes, offers, or guarantees of any rate, savings amount, or approval. This article is general information, not financial advice — talk to a licensed advisor about your specific situation. MyRateAdvisor NMLS #1598577.