Last Monday we said the Fed's decision was already in the price and the number to watch was the 10-year Treasury. The first Freddie Mac survey taken after the decision shows how much of that price had not yet reached mortgage quotes.
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.95% in the survey dated September 17, up from 6.76% a week earlier. That 0.19-point rise is the largest one-week increase since April 2025, and it puts the 30-year at its highest level since January 2025, according to Freddie Mac data published through FRED.
| Rate | Latest | Prior Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 6.95% | 6.76% | ▲ +0.19 |
| 15-year fixed | 6.26% | 6.09% | ▲ +0.17 |
| 30-year minus 15-year | 0.69 | 0.67 | ▲ +0.02 |
| Fed funds rate (effective, August) | 3.63% | 3.63% | — unchanged |
| Fed funds target range (since Sept. 16) | 3.75%–4.00% | 3.50%–3.75% | ▲ +0.25 |
Quick read: The 30-year rose 0.19 in a week and is now 0.52 above where it sat in early July (6.43%). The 15-year hit 6.26%, also its highest since January 2025. The prime rate, which most variable HELOCs follow, moved from 6.75% to 7.00% the day after the Fed's decision. The August effective funds rate in the table is a monthly average from before the hike, which is why it has not moved yet.
A fully expected Fed hike does not have to move mortgage rates at all. What moved them was the path the 10-year Treasury took through the week and what the Fed said about the months ahead.
According to FRED, the 10-year closed at 5.00% on Tuesday, September 15, and 5.01% on Wednesday, the day of the decision. It eased to 4.94% on Thursday. Freddie Mac's survey draws on loan applications submitted earlier in the survey week, so this reading caught lenders pricing loans while the 10-year was sitting at 5%, not after it pulled back.
The Fed also gave bond investors less reason to expect relief. As we covered in Wednesday's breakdown, the vote was unanimous, the statement dropped its language about supply shocks, and 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more increase before the end of 2026. The median projection for the end of 2027 rose to 4.1%, from 3.6% in June. None of that is a forecast by MyRateAdvisor, but it tells you why long-term yields had little room to fall.
One week is not a trend: Thursday's easing in the 10-year may or may not show up in the next survey on September 24. Weekly averages can swing in either direction, and nothing here predicts where your rate will be.
On a $600,000 30-year loan, principal and interest at 6.95% comes to about $3,972 a month. At last week's 6.76% it was about $3,896, so the week added roughly $76 a month. Against early July's 6.43%, when the same loan ran about $3,765, the difference is around $207 a month.
The 15-year tells the same story. At 6.26%, a $600,000 15-year loan runs about $5,148 a month, up from roughly $5,092 at 6.09%. (Estimates assume principal and interest only on a $600,000 loan for the full stated term, with no property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, or mortgage insurance. Your rate and payment will differ.)
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Check My Rate →The gap between your rate and today's market just got wider. A $600,000 balance at 4% costs about $2,864 a month in principal and interest, more than $1,100 below the same loan at 6.95%. If you need cash for a renovation, tuition, or paying down higher-rate debt, a second lien such as a HELOC or home equity loan leaves that first mortgage alone. Our guide to tapping equity without refinancing walks through the options, and you can start with a free equity estimate.
The hike has reached you, or will soon. FRED shows the prime rate at 7.00% as of September 17, up from 6.75%. On a line priced off prime, a quarter point adds roughly $21 a month in interest per $100,000 drawn, or about $31 on $150,000, starting whenever your lender's adjustment schedule applies it. With most Fed officials projecting another increase this year, it is reasonable to plan for a second step. Many lenders let you convert part of a balance to a fixed rate, and a fixed-rate home equity loan is another way to put a firm number on your cost. This comparison covers the tradeoff.
The refinance math is tighter than it was even a week ago. A common rule of thumb is that a refinance starts to make sense when you can lower your rate by roughly 0.75% to 1% after costs. Against a 6.95% survey average, that bar is hard to clear from 7.5%, and more realistic if your rate is closer to 8%. Your balance, closing costs, and how long you plan to stay decide it. If you also want cash out, compare a HELOC with a cash-out refinance in our California breakdown before assuming the refinance wins.
A week like this one is why lock timing matters, but nobody can reliably call the next move. What you can control is how many lenders compete for your file. The spread between offers on the same loan is often larger than a week of rate movement, which is the case for shopping through a broker rather than a single bank.
Survey averages are a starting point, not your rate. If you work for a major California organization such as Kaiser Permanente, LAUSD, CalPERS, PG&E, UPS, FedEx and many others, MyRateAdvisor's lender relationships may make discounted pricing available to you on a first mortgage or a home equity product. Checking eligibility is free and does not involve a credit pull.
Freddie Mac's next survey publishes Thursday, September 24, and will show whether Thursday's dip in the 10-year carried through to mortgage pricing. After that, the September jobs report in early October and the September inflation report will shape whether the Fed follows through on the extra increase its projections show. The committee's next scheduled decision is October 27–28.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED, as of September 17, 2026. Prior-week figures, the early-July 30-year average of 6.43% (July 2, 2026), and the "highest since" and "largest weekly increase since" comparisons are calculated from the same FRED series (MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US). Effective federal funds rate (August monthly average), 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yields for September 15–17, 2026, and the bank prime loan rate: FRED. Federal funds target range, vote, statement language, and rate projections: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026. Survey rates are national averages for conventional, conforming loans for borrowers with excellent credit, and may differ from the rate you are offered. Payment figures are illustrative estimates based on the assumptions stated in the article. This article is general information, not financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor about your specific situation. MyRateAdvisor NMLS #1598577.