For the first time since August, mortgage rates did not go up. Freddie Mac's survey dated October 15 put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, unchanged from the week before. That ends a run of seven straight weekly increases. The 15-year fixed slipped to 6.71% from 6.73%, its first weekly decline since the survey dated August 20.
A flat week is not a turn, and rates are still near their highest level since late 2023. But the bond market has been leaning the other way for two weeks now, and the Fed meets next Tuesday and Wednesday. Here is where things stand and what it means for your loan.
| Rate | Latest | Prior Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 7.40% | 7.40% | — unchanged |
| 15-year fixed | 6.71% | 6.73% | ▼ −0.02 |
| 30-year minus 15-year | 0.69 | 0.67 | ▲ +0.02 |
| Fed funds rate (effective, monthly average) | 3.75% (Sept.) | 3.63% (Aug.) | ▲ +0.12 |
| Fed funds target range (since Sept. 16) | 3.75%–4.00% | 3.75%–4.00% | — unchanged |
| Prime rate | 7.00% | 7.00% | — unchanged |
Quick read: The 30-year paused at 7.40% after climbing 0.75 points from 6.65% on August 20. The 15-year dipped slightly. The Fed and the prime rate have not moved since September 16. The effective funds rate in the table is a monthly average and has not been updated for October yet.
Here is the 30-year's path since late August, according to Freddie Mac:
| Survey date | 30-year fixed | 15-year fixed | 30-year weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 20 | 6.65% | 5.95% | — |
| September 17 | 6.95% | 6.26% | ▲ +0.19 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | 6.42% | ▲ +0.08 |
| October 1 | 7.28% | 6.60% | ▲ +0.25 |
| October 8 | 7.40% | 6.73% | ▲ +0.12 |
| October 15 | 7.40% | 6.71% | — 0.00 |
The last time the 30-year average came in exactly unchanged from one week to the next was August 21, 2025. Compared with a year ago, when Freddie Mac's October 16, 2025 survey showed 6.27%, the 30-year is still up about 1.1 points. And the current level remains about 0.39 points below the recent peak of 7.79% set in October 2023.
Thirty-year mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than they follow the Fed. According to the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve, the 10-year closed at 5.31% on October 5, its highest close since May 2002. It has drifted lower since: 5.24% on Friday, October 9, then 5.09% on Friday, October 16. That was its lowest close since September 22 and the second straight Friday-to-Friday decline.
Yields ticked back up to 5.15% on Monday and closed at 5.12% today. That is still about 0.19 points below the October 5 high. Freddie Mac's October 15 survey only partly captured last week's drop, because lenders' rate sheets lag the bond market and the survey collects quotes over several days.
Lower yields are not a promise: A two-week easing in Treasury yields can show up in later surveys, or it can reverse. Next week's Fed meeting could move bonds sharply in either direction. Nothing here predicts the rate you will be offered.
On a $600,000 30-year loan, principal and interest at 7.40% comes to about $4,154 a month, the same as last week. Against August 20's 6.65%, when the same loan ran about $3,852, the climb since late summer adds roughly $302 a month. Against a year ago at 6.27%, about $3,702 a month, the difference is roughly $452 a month, or about $5,400 a year.
At 6.71%, a $600,000 15-year loan runs about $5,296 a month, roughly $7 less than at last week's 6.73%. A year ago at 5.52%, the same 15-year loan ran about $4,909. (Estimates assume principal and interest only on a $600,000 loan for the full stated term, with no property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, or mortgage insurance. Your rate and payment will differ.)
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Check My Rate →A pause at 7.40% does not change your math. A $600,000 balance at 4% costs about $2,864 a month in principal and interest, roughly $1,290 below the same loan at today's average. A cash-out refinance would reprice that entire balance. If you need cash for a remodel, tuition, or paying down higher-rate debt, a HELOC or home equity loan borrows against your equity as a second lien and leaves the low-rate first mortgage alone. Start with our guide to tapping equity without refinancing or a free equity estimate.
This is the week that matters most for you. Most variable HELOCs are priced off prime, which FRED shows at 7.00%, unchanged since the day after the September hike. Prime moves with the Fed's target range, and the Fed decides on October 28. If it raises rates again, prime would typically rise by the same amount within a day or two, and your next statement would reflect it. If you carry a large balance and want a predictable payment, ask your lender whether part of the line can be converted to a fixed rate, or compare a fixed-rate home equity loan using this comparison.
A common rule of thumb is that refinancing starts to make sense when you can lower your rate by roughly 0.75% to 1% after costs. Against a 7.40% survey average, that still generally points to a current rate above 8%. If yields keep easing, that bar comes down, so it is worth having your numbers ready: balance, closing costs, and how long you plan to stay. If you also want cash out, compare a HELOC with a cash-out refinance in our California breakdown first.
Locking right before a Fed meeting is a judgment call, and no one can tell you which way the market will break. Many lenders offer float-down options or longer lock periods, and it is fair to ask what each one costs. The bigger lever is still competition: the gap between offers on the same file is often larger than a week of survey movement, which is why shopping through a broker rather than a single bank can matter more than the day you lock.
Survey averages are a starting point, not your rate. If you work for a major California organization such as Kaiser Permanente or LAUSD, you may qualify for discounted mortgage and home equity pricing through MyRateAdvisor's lender relationships. Checking eligibility is free and does not require a credit pull.
Freddie Mac's next survey publishes Thursday, October 22. It is the first to fully reflect the drop in Treasury yields from October 9 to October 16, so it will show whether the pause turns into a decline. Then the Fed meets October 27–28. September's inflation report, released October 14, came in hotter than expected and raised the odds of another hike, as we covered in last week's CPI post. We will cover the decision and what it means for HELOCs and mortgages the day it lands.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED, as of October 15, 2026. Prior-week figures, the weekly 30-year and 15-year averages from August 20 through October 15, 2026, the October 16, 2025 readings of 6.27% and 5.52%, the October 2023 peak of 7.79%, the August 21, 2025 unchanged week, and the consecutive-increase comparisons are calculated from the same FRED series (MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US). Effective federal funds rate (August and September monthly averages) and bank prime loan rate (through October 13, 2026): FRED. 10-year Treasury yields for October 5 through October 20, 2026: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Federal funds target range: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026. Survey rates are national averages for conventional, conforming loans for borrowers with excellent credit, and may differ from the rate you are offered. Payment figures are illustrative estimates based on the assumptions stated in the article. This article is general information, not financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor about your specific situation. MyRateAdvisor NMLS #1598577.